Longitudinal Modeling of Lung Function Trajectories in Smokers with and without Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease

RATIONALE: The relationship between longitudinal lung function trajectories, chest computed tomography (CT) imaging, and genetic predisposition to chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) has not been explored. OBJECTIVES: 1) To model trajectories using a data-driven approach applied to longitudinal data spanning adulthood in the Normative Aging Study (NAS), and 2) to apply these models to demographically similar subjects in the COPDGene (Genetic Epidemiology of COPD) Study with detailed phenotypic characterization including chest CT. METHODS: We modeled lung function trajectories in 1,060 subjects in NAS with a median follow-up time of 29 years. We assigned 3,546 non-Hispanic white males in COPDGene to these trajectories for further analysis. We assessed phenotypic and genetic differences between trajectories and across age strata. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: We identified four trajectories in NAS with differing levels of maximum lung function and rate of decline. In COPDGene, 617 subjects (17%) were assigned to the lowest trajectory and had the greatest radiologic burden of disease (P